Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNational Party 53%+1.1ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.4 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
May 25, 26, 10:25 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.2%
0.2%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Resolves the same as: https://polymarket.com/event/new-zealand-election-2nd-place-393
- Rules below are a guide only:
- A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
- If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $837.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213M
- 24h Vol
- $477.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for New Zealand Election 2nd Place (Polymarket)?
- Manifold Markets prices National Party at 53% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does New Zealand Election 2nd Place (Polymarket) resolve?
- New Zealand Election 2nd Place (Polymarket) is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is New Zealand Election 2nd Place (Polymarket) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves the same as: https://polymarket.com/event/new-zealand-election-2nd-place-393