Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 98.9%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleNov 24, 25, 9:29 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiMike Johnson out as Speaker by which date?
PolymarketRules
Will Resolve YES if at any point before Nov 3 2026 Mike Johnson is no longer speaker.
- There is speculation Republican members will retire mid term and this will result in Mike Johnson no longer having a majority.