Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 78.9%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 11, 26, 4:34 AM UTCNov 7, 26, 4:34 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
IF democrats win the house, will Hakeem Jeffries be their speaker?
Manifold MarketsWill Hakeem Jeffries be Speaker following the 2026 Election?
Manifold MarketsWill Hakeem Jeffries win the New York 8th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExWill there be a Assassination attempt on Elon Musks life between now and the mid terms of 2026.
Manifold MarketsDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
resolves based on the first speaker voted in after everyone has been seated from the 2026 midterms held on tuesday 3 november 2026. does not resolve based on speaker pro tempore or any temporary speakers.
- resolves yes if hakeem jeffries is speaker.
- resolves the named outcome, if the speaker is a democrat, but not hakeem jeffries.
- resolves the named outcome, if the speaker is not a democrat. eg. independent, republican, greens etc.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will hakeem jeffries be house speaker after the 2026 mid terms??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will hakeem jeffries be house speaker after the 2026 mid terms? resolve?
- Will hakeem jeffries be house speaker after the 2026 mid terms? is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2026.
- How is Will hakeem jeffries be house speaker after the 2026 mid terms? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: resolves based on the first speaker voted in after everyone has been seated from the 2026 midterms held on tuesday 3 november 2026. does not resolve based on speaker pro tempore or any temporary speakers.