Mearsheimer prediction: Will Russia attack European countries that are not Ukraine?
GeopoliticsOne-OffWeatherRussia / UkraineEurope9moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJul 12, 26, 5:43 PM UTCJul 10, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?
Manifold MarketsThese countries do not allow visitors with a felony conviction. Which will Trump travel to during his current term?
Manifold MarketsWhen will any European countries land someone on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attack a NATO member in 2026?
FutuurNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRussia military action against EU country by which date?
PolymarketRules
Prediction from the interview: Prof John Mearsheimer: Russia Will Strike Europe If Two Conditions Are Met
- [link preview]Mearsheimer mentions 2 conditions/criteria. 1.
- Russia does not develop the capability to minimize the effects of the drone strikes. 2.
- Russia does not win militarily on the battlefield.
- Mearsheimer did not make a timeline but it sounds on his prediction like this will be next step for the Russians so I think 1 year is a generous amount of time to give the prediction.
- The question resolves to "Yes" if both criteria is fulfilled and Russia does attack European targets outside of Ukraine and Russia.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+1.1pt97%
- September 25-4.0pt85%
- September 30-2.0pt78%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $765.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt60%
- October 3135%
- September 309%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt83.2%
- Yes+1.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $67.4M
- 24h Vol
- $297.6K
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+2.5pt21%
- October 31+4.0pt14%
- September 30+1.6pt4%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- No Meeting by September 30+0.2pt88.9%
- USA-1.1pt9.1%
- Switzerland+0.3pt1%
- Trump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Houthis enter Aden by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Mearsheimer prediction: Will Russia attack European countries that are not Ukraine??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Mearsheimer prediction: Will Russia attack European countries that are not Ukraine? resolve?
- Mearsheimer prediction: Will Russia attack European countries that are not Ukraine? is scheduled to resolve on July 10, 2027.
- How is Mearsheimer prediction: Will Russia attack European countries that are not Ukraine? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Prediction from the interview: Prof John Mearsheimer: Russia Will Strike Europe If Two Conditions Are Met