Mearsheimer prediction: Will Russia attack European countries that are not Ukraine?
GeopoliticsOne-OffWeatherRussia / UkraineEurope8mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJul 12, 26, 5:43 PM UTCJul 10, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
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Prediction from the interview: Prof John Mearsheimer: Russia Will Strike Europe If Two Conditions Are Met
- [link preview]Mearsheimer mentions 2 conditions/criteria. 1.
- Russia does not develop the capability to minimize the effects of the drone strikes. 2.
- Russia does not win militarily on the battlefield.
- Mearsheimer did not make a timeline but it sounds on his prediction like this will be next step for the Russians so I think 1 year is a generous amount of time to give the prediction.
- The question resolves to "Yes" if both criteria is fulfilled and Russia does attack European targets outside of Ukraine and Russia.
