Current community forecast
No 90.1%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Dec 23, 25, 6:57 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Te Pati Maori win 3 or more electorates in next NZ election?
Manifold MarketsWill Te Pati Maori or Opportunity Party poll at 5.00% or more for the 2026 NZ election?
Manifold MarketsTe Pati Maori win 3 or more electorates in next NZ election?
Manifold MarketsNZ Election: National Party # of seats?
Manifold MarketsNZ Election: Opportunity Party # of seats?
PolymarketNZ Election: National Party # of seats?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Labour formally rules out Te Pāti Māori as a coalition partner before the 2026 election (by December 19, 2026).
- It resolves NO if Labour does not make such a formal ruling, or if they explicitly keep the option open.
- Resolution will be based on official statements from Labour leadership or party policy documents.
- Te Pāti Māori won six electorate seats and 3.08% of the popular vote in the 2023 general election.
- Labour has expressed no concern if Te Pāti Māori is destroyed and out of Parliament after the 2026 election, with the party campaigning "vigorously" to win back the Māori seats.
