Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (45.4%)
Resolved: Oct 1, 2026, 4:22 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 29, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
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Lost
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Susan Collins Outperform Maine's Republican Baseline in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Graham Platner and Susan Collins debate?
KalshiWho will endorse Susan Collins?
KalshiWill Susan Collins win the Maine general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWill Susan Collins be seen with Donald Trump before election day?
Manifold MarketsWill Susan Collins (Maine) Outperform outperform Republicans by 10%?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves yes if Susan Collins is down by more than the margin of error in the poll.
- (MOE will be shown in the poll results) Use likely voters first, if not available, use registered voters.
- Use final ranked choice if ranked choice is used.
- If Leaners are pushed, use leaners pushed result.
- EG. if margin of error is 3.9 and Troy Jackson is up 52-48, resolve yes.
- If margin of error is 3.9 and Troy Jackson is up 51-49, resolve no
