Will Susan Collins Outperform Maine's Republican Baseline in 2026?
QuarterlyUS PoliticsElectionPolitics1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 97%
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Updated 45 minutes ago
LaggingMar 17, 25, 7:16 AM UTCDec 1, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
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Susan Collins is a Republican U.S. Senator from Maine who has served since 1997.
- She has historically outperformed typical Republican candidates in Maine, positioning herself as a moderate in a state that leans Democratic overall.
- A January 2025 political science paper titled "The Electoral Consequences of Ideological Persuasion: Evidence from a Within-Precinct Analysis of U.S. Elections" by Bonica, Rhee, and Studen examines how candidate ideology affects vote share.
- The paper finds that a standard deviation change in ideological midpoint between candidates results in an average vote share penalty of 0.6 percentage points, with the authors concluding that "gains associated with ideological moderation are relatively modest and likely secondary to turnout effects."
- Matthew Yglesias has challenged this paper's conclusions, suggesting that moderates like Susan Collins consistently outperform their state's partisan baseline, contrary to the paper's findings that ideological moderation offers only modest electoral advantages.
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