Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.3%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 22, 26, 3:28 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExECB Interest Rates: October 2026
PolymarketWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExECB Interest Rates: December 2026
PolymarketWill the Fed raise the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWhich central banks will raise interest rates in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES iff the lower bound of the fed funds target rate is 10.00% or higher before January 1st, 2030 according to the US federal reserve.
Open markets
FedPOLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase+4.0pt54.5%
- No change-6.0pt43.6%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.7M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2026?
- Hike 25bps+4.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-6.0pt43.7%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.1pt97.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.3pt2.1%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt0%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in December?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt66%
- No change-1.0pt30.1%
- 25 bps decrease1.9%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 2 (50 bps)-2.0pt59.4%
- 3 (75 bps)+4.9pt22.8%
- 1 (25 bps)-2.0pt16.8%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-1.2pt94%
- Exactly 1 cut+1.0pt5%
- Exactly 2 cuts+0.2pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed rate decision in October 2026
- Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in September
- Fed decision in Dec 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Bank of Japan Decision in October?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Number of rate hikes in 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Interest rates above 10% before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 79% as of September 19, 2026.
- When does Interest rates above 10% before 2030? resolve?
- Interest rates above 10% before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Interest rates above 10% before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES iff the lower bound of the fed funds target rate is 10.00% or higher before January 1st, 2030 according to the US federal reserve.