Current community forecast
Not demonstrated by 31 Dec 2035 31.6%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 26, 2:44 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a quantum computer with at least 1500 qubits be announced before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Salvatore Pais' "UFO" patent be publicly demonstrated before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill IBM be the first to create a quantum computer with over 10,000 qubits?
Manifold MarketsWill a commercially available quantum computer with over 1 million qubits released before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
📌 Description :
- This market resolves based on the first public demonstration of a quantum computer achieving ≥1,000 logical qubits.
- A valid demonstration must include:
- • Explicit identification of logical qubits (error-corrected, not physical qubits),
- • Evidence of fault-tolerant operation (e.g. sustained error correction),
- • Public disclosure via peer-reviewed paper, preprint, or official announcement by a recognized organization (company, research lab, or government agency).
