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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:13 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 66%
Forecasters
46
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJan 15, 24, 8:20 AM UTCJan 1, 60, 10:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a quantum computer with at least 1500 qubits be announced before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated?
Manifold MarketsWill a commercially available quantum computer with over 1 million qubits released before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
Kalshiwill i get a quantum computer in my lifetime?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This is specifically referring to circuit-based quantum processors.
