Current community forecast
Yes 77.7%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 14, 23, 2:12 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
In the Northern Ireland Assembly, parties and indepedent candidates are designated as nationalist, unionist, or other.
- In every election to the Northern Ireland Assembly so far, unionists have won more seats than nationalists, with the most recent election in 2022, unionists won 37 seats and nationalists 35 (and other 18).
- This market resolves to YES if in the next election to the Assembly, the number of seats won by nationalists is greater than or equal to the number of seats won by unionists (it doesn't matter how many seats other wins), and resolves to NO if this is not the case.
