Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 93.1%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleOct 15, 22, 7:11 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: Most seats
SmarketsWill there be a border poll in Northern Ireland on Irish reunification by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Scotland leave the UK by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scotland leave the UK before 2030
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.6pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.8pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.9M
- 24h Vol
- $661.5K
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-4.0pt83.2%
- Yes+4.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $952.6K
- 24h Vol
- $150.6K
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD+2.0pt78.4%
- SPD-1.0pt21.6%
- CDU0%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+1.0pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-2.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.1pt1%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Berlin State Election Winner
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
- AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2030? resolve?
- Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.