KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 77%
Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$944.5
Liquidity
$1.2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
13.0% / 22.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 13, 26, 8:00 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum?
KalshiWill there be a border poll in Northern Ireland on Irish reunification by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2030?
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SmarketsGeorgia vs. Northern Ireland
PolymarketRules
If Northern Ireland agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to hold a border poll on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
- Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
- The following do NOT qualify:
- Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum??
- Kalshi prices No at 77% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum? resolve?
- Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Northern Ireland agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to hold a border poll on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.