Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast🇮🇷 Iran 78.4%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
41
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMar 4, 26, 12:37 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If there is a nuclear detonation in 2026, resolves YES to all countries listed that detonate nuclear weapons in 2026, and NO to all countries that didn't.
- Otherwise, all options resolve N/A. Update 2026-03-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Nuclear tests (non-combat detonations) count toward resolution, not just wartime use.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
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- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who??
- Manifold Markets prices 🇮🇷 Iran at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who? resolve?
- If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If there is a nuclear detonation in 2026, resolves YES to all countries listed that detonate nuclear weapons in 2026, and NO to all countries that didn't.