Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast🇮🇷 Iran 53.9%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
42
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 4, 26, 12:37 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If there is a nuclear detonation in 2026, resolves YES to all countries listed that detonate nuclear weapons in 2026, and NO to all countries that didn't.
- Otherwise, all options resolve N/A. Update 2026-03-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Nuclear tests (non-combat detonations) count toward resolution, not just wartime use.
