If Rootclaim/Saar analyze Al-Shifa Hospital, will they conclude it was used for "command and control activities"?
GeopoliticsOne-OffChessMiddle EastSports2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a >90% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities" 45.1%Leader of 7 outcomes
If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a >90% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities" 45.1%Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 4, 24, 10:35 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This is an attempt to anchor predictions about the alleged military use of Al-Shifa Hospital to a reliable resolution source.
- This question is specifically about the claims made by US Intelligence that the hospital was used to "Exercise certain command and control activities" as reported in this AP article :
- “The U.S. Intelligence Community is confident in its judgment on this topic and has independently corroborated information on HAMAS and PIJ’s use of the hospital complex for a variety of purposes related to its campaign against Israel,” the assessment states.
- It continues that it believes the groups “used the al-Shifa hospital complex and sites beneath it to house command infrastructure, exercise certain command and control activities, store some weapons, and hold at least a few hostages.”
- Rootclaim is an organization known for doing probabilistic analysis of unclear events, including events related to war.
- They challenge anyone who disagrees with their claims to prove them wrong in a debate with neutral judges and win large sums of money.
