Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 63.5%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMar 19, 26, 2:01 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Chuck Schumer stop being Senate Democratic Leader before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Chuck Schumer announce he’s not running for reelection before EOY 2027?
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KalshiWill Chuck Schumer announce he’s not running for reelection before EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Chuck Schumer remain the Democratic Leader through the 119th Congress?
PredictItWill Chuck Schumer run for reelection?
KalshiRules
Resolves n/a if democrats do not control the senate after the 2026 elections.
- Resolves yes if chuck schumer is the first senate democratic leader after the 2026 elections
- Resolves no if anyone else is the first senate democratic leader after the 2026 elections
Open markets
Politics
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader? resolve?
- IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves n/a if democrats do not control the senate after the 2026 elections.