If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?
Middle EastOne-OffChina4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleOct 17, 23, 4:30 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 6:29 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Bets cancelled if China invades Taiwan by the end of 2024
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31? resolve?
- If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Bets cancelled if China invades Taiwan by the end of 2024