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If an AI catastrophe occurs (1000+ linked deaths), it will be...

GeopoliticsOne-OffAI Tech4y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

an open source model 49.5%+4.2%

Leader of 20 outcomes

Forecasters

10

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 22 minutes ago

Jul 25, 26, 9:52 AMDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

an open source model50%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Market is extended until an AI disaster event occurs.

This market only pertains to the first event of its kind.
1,000 deaths need to be somewhat traceable to an event initiated/decided by an AI, or humans relying on an AI decisionmaking process.
If an AI decisionmaker had decided to cut USAID, then the humans stopped doing the things associated with USAID, that would have counted, for example.
Similarly, if an AI causes an outage which causes car crashes, that would count, even if it were indirect (i.e. all traffic lights in the world are converted to the same AI system, that system fails, and 1000 people die at intersections)
Resolution criteria

Volume trend

$106

Jul 252d of dataJul 26

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Rules

Market is extended until an AI disaster event occurs.

This market only pertains to the first event of its kind.
1,000 deaths need to be somewhat traceable to an event initiated/decided by an AI, or humans relying on an AI decisionmaking process.
If an AI decisionmaker had decided to cut USAID, then the humans stopped doing the things associated with USAID, that would have counted, for example.
Similarly, if an AI causes an outage which causes car crashes, that would count, even if it were indirect (i.e. all traffic lights in the world are converted to the same AI system, that system fails, and 1000 people die at intersections)
Resolution criteria