Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastBecause a human directed it to do so 62.2%Leader of 20 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jul 25, 26, 9:52 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Non-AI catastrophe before 2100?
Manifold MarketsAI safety activist causes AI catastrophe to slow development before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill "AI catastrophe: more like a genocide than a t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsDoes open sourcing LLMs/AI models (a la meta) increase risk of AI catastrophe?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in the world throughout the 2020s
Manifold MarketsHigh Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRules
Market is extended until an AI disaster event occurs.
- This market only pertains to the first event of its kind.
- 1,000 deaths need to be somewhat traceable to an event initiated/decided by an AI, or humans relying on an AI decisionmaking process.
- If an AI decisionmaker had decided to cut USAID, then the humans stopped doing the things associated with USAID, that would have counted, for example.
- Similarly, if an AI causes an outage which causes car crashes, that would count, even if it were indirect (i.e. all traffic lights in the world are converted to the same AI system, that system fails, and 1000 people die at intersections)
- Resolution criteria
