Current community forecast
No 68.9%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleNov 2, 25, 2:03 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 2:01 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that one or more AI safety activists intentionally caused (planned, directed, or materially supported) a significant AI‑related catastrophe in order to slow down AI capabilities development, before January 1st 2040.
- AI safety activist: An individual or group who, prior to the incident, publicly and persistently advocated for AI safety or for slowing/pausing AI capabilities (e.g., through campaigns, organizations, public statements, or advocacy work).
- This includes but is not limited to self‑identification or consistent characterization by reputable sources.
- AI‑related catastrophe (AI‑caused): The AI system’s design, output, operation, or misuse was a necessary cause of the harms (not merely incidental or background).
- Non‑AI sabotage (e.g., vandalizing a data center) does not qualify unless the catastrophic harm itself was caused by an AI system.
- Significant: Any one of the following is met:
