Non-AI catastrophe before 2100?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Non-AI catastrophe before 2100??

Manifold Markets prices No at 70.7% as of October 31, 2026.

When does Non-AI catastrophe before 2100? resolve?

Non-AI catastrophe before 2100? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2099.

How is Non-AI catastrophe before 2100? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Operationalised as 1billion or more people dying in a 365 day range that ends before 2100, conditional on there not being any AGI created before 2100

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google-5.5pt53.5%
• Anthropic+5.5pt38.4%
• OpenAI+0.1pt6.1%

+12 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.6M

24h Vol

$163.4K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+1.5pt31.1%
• $2.0–$2.25T+2.6pt19.4%
• $1.5–$1.75T-4.0pt18.4%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini-3.0pt52.6%
• Claude+3.1pt39%
• ChatGPT+0.9pt

POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

• SpaceX+3.5pt58%
• Anthropic-4.2pt42%
• ByteDance0%

+9 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

• ↑$1.5T+3.0pt92%
• ↑$1.75T+1.5pt82%
• ↑$2.0T+4.5pt70%

+11 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,-6.6pt85%
• December 15,-6.5pt83%
• November 30,-2.5pt81%

+15 more outcomes

• Anthropic IPO Date
• Best AI this week
• When will Gemini Carbon be released?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?
• Gemini Carbon released on?
• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
• Google market share this week
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• Anthropic market share this week