How will Vladimir Putin cease to be President of Russia?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine14y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDie in office 66.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
28
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleAug 16, 23, 9:56 AM UTCDec 31, 40, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Here are some details on the individual answers:
- the named outcome - this also applies if Putin doesn't actually die but becomes severely incapacitated and unable to rule while in office (like Salazar).
- the named outcome - this implies Putin accepts the results.
- If he holds on to power, he doesn't cease to become president.
- the named outcome - this would mean he maintains significant control of the country/government/security services, e.g. as a Prime Minister, Head of Security Council or some kind of Father of the Nation (like Nazarbayev).
- the named outcome - by anything from a palace coup (think Khrushchev) to a popular uprising.
