Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Natural death (or one appearing as such) 25.5%Leader of 10 outcomes
Natural death (or one appearing as such) 25.5%Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleDec 5, 24, 6:11 PM UTCJan 1, 41, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Vladimir Putin be alive and out of custody for at least 7 days after he ceases to be the president of Russia?
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Manifold MarketsPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
PolymarketWill Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to the primary reason why Vladimir Putin ceases to be the President of Russia.
- If multiple events occur simultaneously or in quick succession (e.g., a the named outcome followed by impeachment), the market will resolve to the initial triggering event.
- Resolution criteria for each option:
- Obviously unnatural death: Clear evidence of assassination, missile strike, or other non-natural causes
- Natural death (or one appearing as such): Death attributed to health issues or age-related causes, or deaths where the cause is unclear/disputed
