How quickly will USA lift its sanctions on Russia after the end of Russo-Ukrainian hostilities?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Less than a day 35.9%Leader of 6 outcomes
Less than a day 35.9%Forecasters
21
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleSep 4, 24, 8:14 AM UTCDec 21, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
How long will it take for the US to lift/raise/release/end its economic sanctions on Russia following the end of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine?
- Clock starts when Russia and Ukraine credibly officially agree to end the conflict & announce that to the world.
- If there isn't a nice, clean, official pronouncement, (eg: a temporary cease-fire keeps getting extended) clock starts when armies have withdrawn (when armies are out of each other's territories & not massed threateningly at the border) and air strikes have stopped.
- 'Sanctions lifted' will use the same resolution vibe as this other market (but not chatbot adjudication):
- ...largely lifted (let's say more than 80 percent) ... compared to the baseline of today (2024-06-30).
- Data over which to to evaluate this vibe: See the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control's Ukraine-/Russia-related Sanctions page and Sectoral Sanctions Identifications List which is currently a 185-page PDF (other formats) with 295 entities with Russian addresses.
