Did Donald Trump have sex with a minor (underage)? (Sworn court testimony or similar, by 2028-01-01.)
US PoliticsOne-OffCrime & Justice1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64.9%
Forecasters
52
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJul 25, 25, 1:00 AM UTCJan 3, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Will a court or congressional hearing be presented with sworn testimony stating that Donald Trump had sex with a minor, or with photo, video, or other recorded evidence to the same effect? This would include testimony on the stand or in a deposition, and could include both direct eyewitness or victim accounts or other unambiguous assertions without caveats by the witness.
- The testimony or evidence need not be publicly available if a consensus of credible reporting is available that it happened.
- For example, a court documenting describing the photo, or a news report summarizing the testimony is likely sufficient.
- There is no requirement that the evidence be compelling, or that there be a lack of evidence to the contrary; it must merely be presented under oath as fact without caveats or equivocation.
- Update 2025-07-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The term minor is defined by the applicable age of consent laws for the location and time of the alleged act.
- The market is about testimony regarding presumptively illegal acts.
