Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99.3%
Forecasters
553
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Nov 14, 25, 9:56 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 9:54 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Hillary and Bill Clinton divorce announcement before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsDid Donald Trump have gay sex?
Manifold MarketsDid Donald Trump have sex with a minor (underage)? (Sworn court testimony or similar, by 2028-01-01.)
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump issue a public apology?
KalshiWho will Donald Trump meet in 2026?
KalshiWill Donald Trump attend UFC 332?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve as YES if it is confirmed by January 1st 2027 that Donald Trump and Bill Clinton had sex
- For the purposes of this market, oral sex counts as sexual intercourse
Open markets
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $805.6K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt44.1%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.1K
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton? resolve?
- Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve as YES if it is confirmed by January 1st 2027 that Donald Trump and Bill Clinton had sex