Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 18, 24, 5:20 AM UTCJan 1, 99, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PredictItRules
As of creation, this market has exactly a 50% chance of resolving YES and a 50% chance of resolving NO by January 1, 2099, by the following mechanism:
- Every year on January 1st, beginning 2025, I will resolve this market as YES with a probability of p=0.009199=1-0.5^(1/75).
- If on January 1, 2099, after the last resolution attempt, the market is not yet resolved, it will resolve as NO.
- Since there are 75 such attempts, the probability of resolving NO is exactly (1-p)^75 = 0.5, because that's the probability that the market does not resolve as YES in all 75 attempts.
- This is an experiment in prediction markets.
- As this market evolves, I will reveal some results in the theory of prediction markets which I hope will convince some folks to change their trading strategy.
