China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsChinaMiddle EastTechManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Aug 12, 2026, 3:29 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 days ago
StaleMay 12, 26, 2:38 AMAug 12, 26, 2:35 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
99%
1%
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if an official, public agreement is reached where:
- China facilitates a permanent peace deal involving Iran to end the current conflict.
- Explicit, verifiable conditions of this deal include the provision or allowance of Nvidia chips (e.g., H200 or similar models) to Chinese entities or associated parties in exchange for this mediation.
- This market resolves to NO if no such agreement is reached, or if any agreement reached does not explicitly link the peace deal to the provision or trade of Nvidia chips.
- Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times) or official statements from the government offices of the United States, China, or Iran.
