By the end of what year will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?
24.2 pts (24h)One-OffScience10yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2029 99%+29.6ptLeader of 16 outcomes
Forecasters
31
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+24.2 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Mar 22, 25, 11:49 AM UTCDec 31, 36, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWill some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
Manifold MarketsWill some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiRules
When the next (2nd) millennium prize problem is solved, that year and all future years will resolve yes.
- The publication date of the solution (without significant gaps) will be used (UTC).
- To count, a large majority of the mathematical community has to view it as a valid solution.
- (This is almost certainly equivalent to the Clay institute offering to award the prize.)
- A particular year will resolve no if at least one month into the next year no serious solution has been posted.
- A solution proposed by anyone not affiliated to a research institute is not considered serious unless a professional mathematician has highlighted it as such.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By the end of what year will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved??
- Manifold Markets prices 2029 at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does By the end of what year will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? resolve?
- By the end of what year will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2036.
- How is By the end of what year will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: When the next (2nd) millennium prize problem is solved, that year and all future years will resolve yes.