By 2028 will there be another assassination attempt on Donald Trump?
US PoliticsOne-OffSportsCrime & JusticeGolf1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 60.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 13, 26, 11:12 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if there is another confirmed, deliberate assassination attempt on Donald Trump occurring between September 13, 2026, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.
- To qualify for a YES resolution, an event must meet the following criteria:
- Target and Intent: The act must be a physical, deliberate attempt to take the life of Donald Trump.
- Lethal Means: The attempt must involve a weapon or method capable of causing death (e.g., firearms, explosives, poisoning, or direct physical assault).
- Official Characterization: The incident must be officially characterized as an "assassination attempt" or "attempted assassination" by a major U.S. federal or state law enforcement agency (such as the FBI, U.S. Secret Service, or Department of Justice), or result in federal charges explicitly for the attempted assassination of Donald Trump (e.g., under 18 U.S. Code § 1751).
