Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 54.3%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 31 minutes ago
Jun 29, 25, 9:17 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2030 at 11:59 PM UTC, there is a publicly confirmed act of terrorism in which biological weapons are intentionally used or deployed by either a non-state actor (such as a terrorist group or extremist cell) or a state actor engaged in a terroristic or covert operation, in order to:
- Cause death or illness among civilians,
- Incite widespread fear, panic, or political destabilization,
- Coerce or blackmail governments or populations,
- Disrupt critical infrastructure or agriculture.
- Importantly, conventional wartime use of bioweapons between military forces or in declared armed conflict does NOT count.