As the war continues, will Russia begin drafting women into its military?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.1%
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44
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binary
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Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJul 19, 23, 9:54 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Currently, it's estimated that <5% of Russia's military is female, down from a high of around 10%.
- However, men between 18 and 27 already face general conscription.
- With an evident shortfall in military manpower (see: reliance on mercenaries, expansion of recruitment to foreigners and convicts, etc.), will Russia's invasion of Ukraine cause enough instability that requires including women into a draft or the routine conscription?
- History and Current Status of Women in the Russian Military
- Resolves YES if Russia institutes any compulsory military service as a rule on any population of female citizens before the end of the war in Ukraine.
- Otherwise NO when the war ends.