As the war continues, will Russia begin drafting women into its military?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.1%
Forecasters
44
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 49 minutes ago
LaggingJul 19, 23, 9:54 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWill the temporary Iran–Oman Hormuz shipping route begin operating by September 15?
Manifold MarketsWill WW3 begin before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRules
Currently, it's estimated that <5% of Russia's military is female, down from a high of around 10%.
- However, men between 18 and 27 already face general conscription.
- With an evident shortfall in military manpower (see: reliance on mercenaries, expansion of recruitment to foreigners and convicts, etc.), will Russia's invasion of Ukraine cause enough instability that requires including women into a draft or the routine conscription?
- History and Current Status of Women in the Russian Military
- Resolves YES if Russia institutes any compulsory military service as a rule on any population of female citizens before the end of the war in Ukraine.
- Otherwise NO when the war ends.