Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 1:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastBen Allen 69.8%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.8 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMay 25, 26, 3:42 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially certified as the winner of the 2026 California Insurance Commissioner election by the California Secretary of State.
- The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- The resolution will be based on the official final election results published by the California Secretary of State's Office.
- If the election is canceled or the office remains vacant for any reason, the market will resolve N/A. The 2026 California Insurance Commissioner election is a high-profile contest to succeed incumbent Ricardo Lara, who is term-limited and ineligible for re-election.