LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Sep 8, 2026, 10:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Yes 50%
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Aug 25, 26, 4:28 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
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PolymarketUS and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Prediction Source Comparison
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US x China tariff agreement by December 31??
- Limitless prices Yes at 50% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US x China tariff agreement by December 31? resolve?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is US x China tariff agreement by December 31? settled?
- Limitless settles this market as follows: <p>This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is US x China tariff agreement by December 31? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.