Current implied probability
People's Party 78.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
People's Party 78.5%Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Oct 5, 26, 12:58 PM UTCAug 21, 28, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
the named outcome · the named outcome · Sumar · Vox.
Additional context — Updated October 14, 2026
Seats won by the Socialists’ Party of Catalonia (PSC-PSOE) count toward the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE).
If the winner of the next Spanish general election is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber.
- If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.
This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner.
- See full rules for details.
Outcome verified from Ministry of Interior.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Spanish general election winner? · People's Party 71%
