KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Sep 30, 2026, 6:38 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 6:35 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
At least 5%1%
At least 7%1%
At least 9%1%
At least 13%1%
At least 11%1%
At least 5%Lost
At least 7%Lost
At least 9%Lost
At least 11%Lost
At least 13%Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Serbian parliamentary election: voter turnout
KalshiVictoria parliamentary election: 3rd place?
KalshiWhen will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called?
KalshiSenior Officer+ leads Ukrainian party to 15+ member faction in next parliamentary election.
Manifold MarketsSerbian parliamentary election: Student List vote share?
KalshiHow many seats will be won by EKRE (Conservative People's Party of Estonia) in the next Estonian parliamentary election?
Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by CDU in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election is 5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
- The percentage is (second votes received by the party ÷ total valid second votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places.
- Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from numerator and denominator.
- Except as provided in the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions, use certified/official results; unofficial results or media declarations may be used only as those provisions allow.
- If voting is cancelled, suspended, or postponed before it concludes, or no results (certified or unofficial as reported by the Source Agencies) are available by expiration, resolve No, subject to those provisions.
- If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, use the most recent certified percentage.
