IL-04 House election: Lupe Castillo vote percent
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms2mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
At least 20% · —
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Stored price
At least 30% 43.5%Market line of 10 lines
At least 30% 43.5%Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$200
Open interest
$618.4
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
At least 20%Spread
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Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 11, 26, 2:00 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · At least 20%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 30% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Lupe Castillo ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
Rules for each outcome
- At least 20%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 20% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 22%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 22% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 24%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 24% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 26%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 26% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 28%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 28% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 30%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 30% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 32%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 32% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 34%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 34% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 36%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 36% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 38%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 38% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
