KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
At least 17% 65%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$100
Low liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 11, 26, 8:00 PM UTCSep 20, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by AfD in the 2026 Berlin state election is 11% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Der Landeswahlleiter für Berlin
- The percentage is (second votes received by the party ÷ total valid second votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places.
- Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from numerator and denominator.
- Except as provided in the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions, use certified/official results; unofficial results or media declarations may be used only as those provisions allow.
- If voting is cancelled, suspended, or postponed before it concludes, or no results (certified or unofficial as reported by the Source Agencies) are available by expiration, resolve No, subject to those provisions.
- If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, use the most recent certified percentage.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Berlin state election: AfD vote share??
- Kalshi prices At least 17% at 65% as of September 13, 2026.
- When does Berlin state election: AfD vote share? resolve?
- Berlin state election: AfD vote share? is scheduled to resolve on September 20, 2027.
- How is Berlin state election: AfD vote share? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by AfD in the 2026 Berlin state election is 11% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Berlin state election: AfD vote share? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.