KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 8.3% (99%)
Resolved: Oct 22, 2026, 9:40 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Above 8.3%
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
8.2%5%
7.9%1%
Above 8.3%99%
8.0%3%
8.3%4%
8.1%3%
Below 7.7%1%
7.7%3%
7.8%3%
Above 8.3%Won
8.3%Lost
7.8%Lost
8.2%Lost
7.9%Lost
8.0%Lost
8.1%Lost
Below 7.7%Lost
7.7%Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is below 7.7% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:VoteHub
- If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 7.7% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 7.8% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 7.9% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 8.0% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 8.1% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.