KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 88%
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$84.5
Liquidity
$84.5
Low liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 16.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 7, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Elon Musk spend a month in outer space?
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Manifold MarketsWill Jeff Bezos spend a week in outer space?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the UN’s Security Council permanent members leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill any Antarctic Treaty signatory announce or start building a dual-use research station by end of 2027?
FutuurRules
If the US agrees to or announces withdrawal from the Outer Space Treaty after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Announcements with specified future implementation dates qualify.
- Effective withdrawal need not occur before the deadline.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
- Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US exit the Outer Space Treaty??
- Kalshi prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US exit the Outer Space Treaty? resolve?
- Will the US exit the Outer Space Treaty? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the US exit the Outer Space Treaty? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the US agrees to or announces withdrawal from the Outer Space Treaty after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.