KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 3:44 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Before Oct 1, 2026 0%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
73.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Sep 8, 26, 10:00 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Canada raise tariffs on the US?
KalshiWill Trump raise tariffs on any G7 country to more than 50%?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Trump lower tariffs on Canada?
KalshiWill the United States impose additional tariffs on Canada by December 31, 2026?
ForecastExWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
KalshiWill the Trump suspension of Tariffs on ground beef be fully implemented and last the announce 90 day time period
Manifold MarketsRules
If Donald Trump has taken any presidential action imposing a new tariff or increasing an existing tariff on imports from Canada, with a specified effective date, through a new policy decision officially announced by Donald Trump after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Any qualifying presidential action must be taken personally during the specified time period and explicitly address the topic in its operative provisions, title, or official White House summary.
- Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included.
- Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify.
- The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.
- A specified future effective date qualifies.
Open markets
Trade Policy
POLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 31+8.0pt55.2%
- October 31+7.0pt32%
- September 30+2.0pt12.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $132.3K
- 24h Vol
- $10.9K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt28%
- October 31+0.5pt13%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Yes+13.0pt91%
- No9%
- Total Vol
- $7.1K
- 24h Vol
- $5K
KALSHIWhat will Kroger say during their next earnings call?
- Dividend+2.0pt93%
- Giant Eagle+11.0pt92%
- AI85%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHITraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
- Above 175-1.0pt90%
- Above 20047%
- Above 2259%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7K
KALSHIWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention?
- Trump (3+ times)91%
- Republican80%
- Inflation59%
+15 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3K
- 24h Vol
- $1.3K
- How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- Trump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
- Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
- Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Trump raise tariffs on Canada??
- Kalshi prices Before Oct 1, 2026 at 0% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does When will Trump raise tariffs on Canada? resolve?
- When will Trump raise tariffs on Canada? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is When will Trump raise tariffs on Canada? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Donald Trump has taken any presidential action imposing a new tariff or increasing an existing tariff on imports from Canada, with a specified effective date, through a new policy decision officially announced by Donald Trump after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.