KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 4.9% 98%+5.0ptLeader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2K
Liquidity
$2.8K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 15, 26, 3:35 PM UTCOct 19, 26, 1:55 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the China unemployment rate is above 4.8% for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Trading Economics
- If the China unemployment rate is above 4.9% for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the China unemployment rate is above 5.0% for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the China unemployment rate is above 5.1% for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the China unemployment rate is above 5.2% for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the China unemployment rate is above 5.3% for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
EconomyKALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.3%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.2%98%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $291.5K
- 24h Vol
- $76.3K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes-3.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $3.5M
- 24h Vol
- $21.3K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 0.0%+1.0pt99%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $156.4K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIUnemployment in September
- Above 3.8%+5.0pt98%
- Above 3.7%97%
- Above 3.9%+6.0pt95%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $62.6K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIJobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Above -25,000+1.0pt94%
- Above 0+4.0pt89%
- Above 10,00086%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $49.1K
POLYMARKETUS recession by end of 2026?
- No+4.0pt90.1%
- Yes-4.0pt9.9%
- Total Vol
- $2M
- 24h Vol
- $11.2K
- Recession in 2027?
- CPI core in October
- Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- CPI in October
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- CPI core in September
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- How high will unemployment get in 2026?
- US Nominal GDP in 2026
- September 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for China unemployment rate in September?
- Kalshi prices Above 4.9% at 98% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does China unemployment rate in September resolve?
- China unemployment rate in September is scheduled to resolve on October 19, 2026.
- How is China unemployment rate in September settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the China unemployment rate is above 4.8% for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.