Current community forecast
≥$30B 100%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-22.6 pts
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Apr 22, 26, 3:42 AMOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
100%
100%
100%
Rules
Resolves each threshold based on the peak annualized revenue run rate for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before September 30, 2026. "Annualized revenue" means any reported revenue figure extrapolated to a yearly rate (monthly ×12, quarterly ×4, or explicitly stated ARR). ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO when the market resolves (see below).
- Resolution timing.
- Revenue disclosure cadence changes at IPO: pre-IPO, ARR figures leak ad-hoc through press; post-IPO, revenue arrives on a quarterly filing schedule with a ~40–45 day lag from quarter-end.
- If OpenAI is still private at September 30, 2026: market resolves at close, based on figures published on or before September 30, 2026.
- If OpenAI is public at September 30, 2026: market waits up to 45 days after September 30, 2026 for the quarter-ending 10-Q or earnings release, then resolves.
- Post-IPO quarterly revenue is annualized as quarterly × 4 and attributed to quarter-end.
Open markets
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $298.6K
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $73,000 or above98%
- $73,500 or above97.5%
- $61,000 or above97%
+36 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $168.1K
- 24h Vol
- $152.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BMW Championship Winner
- XRP price on August 21
- XRP price on August 31
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for OpenAI highest annualized revenue run rate by end of September 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices ≥$30B at 100% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does OpenAI highest annualized revenue run rate by end of September 2026 resolve?
- OpenAI highest annualized revenue run rate by end of September 2026 is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is OpenAI highest annualized revenue run rate by end of September 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves each threshold based on the peak annualized revenue run rate for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before September 30, 2026. "Annualized revenue" means any reported revenue figure extrapolated to a yearly rate (monthly ×12, quarterly ×4, or explicitly stated ARR). ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO when the market resolves (see below).