KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Before Oct 2, 2026 (94%)
Resolved: Sep 18, 2026, 2:40 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Before Oct 2, 2026
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
31%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 18, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Before Oct 2, 202661%
Before Sep 25, 202693%
Before Sep 18, 20268%
Before Oct 2, 2026Won
Before Sep 25, 2026Lost
Before Sep 18, 2026Lost
Before Aug 21, 2026Lost
Before Aug 28, 2026Lost
Before Sep 4, 2026Lost
Before Sep 11, 2026Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the federal government has released, after Issuance and the named outcome, previously unreleased documents, audio files, or video files regarding Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (“UAP”), then the market resolves to Yes.