KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 40+ (97%)
Resolved: Nov 1, 2026, 5:50 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
40+
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 1, 2026, 3:31 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
40+97%
10-1410%
15-191%
20-241%
25-291%
30-391%
5-91%
<51%
40+Won
10-14Lost
15-19Lost
20-24Lost
25-29Lost
30-39Lost
5-9Lost
<5Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump on Oct 31, 2026 is at least 40, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Roll Call
- How this is resolved The observation period begins at 12:00:00 AM ET on Oct 31, 2026 and ends at 11:59:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026. The primary resolution source for this market is Roll Call. In the event that Roll Call data is unavailable or inaccurate, alternative sources may be used at Kalshi's discretion. Payout criteria Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths are included in the total count. Replies are included if captured by Roll Call. "Between" is inclusive of the lower and upper bound. Doesn’t count for payout: Posts deleted as of 12:00 AM ET.
Rules for each outcome
- 40+
- If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump on Oct 31, 2026 is at least 40, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 10-14
- If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump on Oct 31, 2026 is between 10 and 14, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 15-19
- If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump on Oct 31, 2026 is between 15 and 19, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 20-24
- If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump on Oct 31, 2026 is between 20 and 24, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 25-29
- If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump on Oct 31, 2026 is between 25 and 29, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 30-39
- If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump on Oct 31, 2026 is between 30 and 39, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5-9
- If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump on Oct 31, 2026 is between 5 and 9, then the market resolves to Yes.
- <5
- If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump on Oct 31, 2026 is below 5, then the market resolves to Yes.