KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 72%
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.4K
Liquidity
$2.1K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
72.0% / 73.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 10, 26, 3:30 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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If it is reported by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026 that the Trump administration's new federal ACA rebate initiative first reported on September 9, 2026, or a revised or successor implementation of that initiative, has actually issued rebates totaling at least $100 to each of at least 100,000 actual recipients, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCBBCThe GuardianABC News AustraliaSouth China Morning PostCBC
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- The market concerns the new federal ACA rebate initiative first reported on September 9, 2026, including a revised or successor implementation.
- Payments may be made directly or through a government-authorized disbursing agent.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump issue Obamacare rebates before Election Day??
- Kalshi prices Yes at 72% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Trump issue Obamacare rebates before Election Day? resolve?
- Will Trump issue Obamacare rebates before Election Day? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Will Trump issue Obamacare rebates before Election Day? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If it is reported by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026 that the Trump administration's new federal ACA rebate initiative first reported on September 9, 2026, or a revised or successor implementation of that initiative, has actually issued rebates totaling at least $100 to each of at least 100,000 actual recipients, then the market resolves to Yes.