KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democratic party 51.5%-1.0pt
Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$9.4
Liquidity
$236.1
Low liquidityBid / Ask
46.0% / 52.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Apr 16, 26, 2:00 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the the named outcome wins the Arizona State House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Times
- Winning is defined as holding more seats than any other party two weeks after the State House is sat for the session following the election.
- If both parties are tied, then the market resolves to No. This market is also eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
- See full rules for details.
Open markets
Politics
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- No-8.0pt69.3%
- Yes+8.0pt30.7%
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- 24h Vol
- $960.3K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.8%
- Gavin Newsom13.7%
+45 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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- Bibi / Netanyahu+83.0pt99%
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+31 more outcomes
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KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027+17.0pt61%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+16.0pt60%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+15.0pt48%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt13%
- December7%
- September 30,-0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.2pt35.7%
- Édouard Philippe-1.0pt27.6%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.2%
+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Arizona State House winner??
- Kalshi prices Democratic party at 51% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does Arizona State House winner? resolve?
- Arizona State House winner? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is Arizona State House winner? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the the named outcome wins the Arizona State House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.