KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Ed Markey, ≥20% 86.8%Leader of 12 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$25.9
Liquidity
$52.5K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jun 17, 26, 3:01 PM UTCSep 1, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
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PolymarketWill Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic primary election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExRules
If the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary falls within 0% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ed Markey minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Markey if Ed Markey wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ed Markey loses.
- For raw votes: the total votes received by Ed Markey minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Markey if Ed Markey wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ed Markey loses.
- For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ed Markey minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ed Markey wins, or the electoral votes received by Ed Markey minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ed Markey does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary margin of victory??
- Kalshi prices Ed Markey, ≥20% at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary margin of victory? resolve?
- Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary margin of victory? is scheduled to resolve on September 1, 2027.
- How is Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary margin of victory? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary falls within 0% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.