KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
100 to 499 61.5%Leader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$7.8K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.8 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jan 9, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
PolymarketWho will Trump pardon in 2026?
KalshiWill Trump pardon anyone by which date?
PolymarketWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2026?
PredictItWill Trump pardon Nicolás Maduro or commute his sentence in 2026?
PredictItRules
If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 25 and 49 persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 50 and 99 persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 100 and 499 persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 500 and 999 persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to above 999 persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many people will Trump pardon in 2026??
- Kalshi prices 100 to 499 at 62% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How many people will Trump pardon in 2026? resolve?
- How many people will Trump pardon in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is How many people will Trump pardon in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 25 and 49 persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.