KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Republicans, 27+ pts 78.3%Leader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$39.7
Low liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
May 5, 26, 8:26 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in West Virginia's 1st District by 24 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Open markets
Politics
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
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- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for West Virginia's 1st District margin of victory?
- Kalshi prices Republicans, 27+ pts at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does West Virginia's 1st District margin of victory resolve?
- West Virginia's 1st District margin of victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is West Virginia's 1st District margin of victory settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in West Virginia's 1st District by 24 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.