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Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 9:17 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Republicans, 13+ pts 0%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
6.4 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
May 5, 26, 8:26 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Utah's 4th District by 13 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Utah's 4th District margin of victory?
- Kalshi prices Republicans, 13+ pts at 0% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Utah's 4th District margin of victory resolve?
- Utah's 4th District margin of victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is Utah's 4th District margin of victory settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Utah's 4th District by 13 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.